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Stock Market Cycle: Design your perfect portfolio

What is stock market cycle?

Stock market cycles is generally a cyclic pattern that is related to the long term price changes in the stock market.These are closely related to the general business cycles.Every trader needs to know about the stock market cycles to predict the price behaviour of various stock while trading. These cycles form the basis of technical analysis that help to form trading strategies for various investments.

Learn to build a portfolio

A portfolio is a collection of investments owned by the investor.These may be cash and cash equivalents and tradable securities like stocks and bonds.Through a risk return pofile,an investor can develop an asset allocation strategy. Selecting from various asset classes and investment options, the investor can allocate assets in a way that achieves optimum diversification while targeting the expected returns. The investor can also assign percentages to various asset classes, including stocks, bonds, cash and alternative investments, based on an acceptable range of volatility for the portfolio. The asset allocation strategy is based on a snapshot of the investor’s current situation and goals, and is usually adjusted as life changes occur. For example, the closer an investor gets to his or her retirement target date, the more the allocation may change to reflect less tolerance for volatility and risk.

Choosing the best sectors to invest during various cycle stages.
As the stock market life is prone to changes in its economic life, this thus affects various sectors. An investor should be well acquainted with the trends prevailing in the market to wisely allocate his scare resources to various assets.
For this reason, investors can watch the Business cycle and choose sectors based upon historical trends within the different phases of the cycle:

  1. Early-Cycle Phase: The economy is rapidly recovering from recession. The credit begins to grow as monetary policy eases (interest rates are falling), which adds money and liquidity to a weakened economy. As a result, corporate earnings are growing and consumers are spending. Best sectors include consumer cyclicals and financials.
  2. Mid-Cycle Phase: This is typically the longest phase of the business cycle. The economy is stronger but growth is moderating. Interest rates are at their lowest and corporate earnings are at their strongest of the cycle. Best sectors include industrials, information technology, and basic materials.
  1. Late-Cycle Phase: Economic growth is slowing and begins to appear overheated as inflation climbs higher and stock prices begin to look expensive compared to earnings.Best sectors in this phase include energy, utilities, healthcare, and consumer staple.
  2. Recession Phase: Economic activity and corporate profits are declining and interest rates are climbing as the Federal Reserve works to fight off inflation. Best sectors in this phase include the same sectors the begin to gain favor in the Late-Cycle Phase. However, this phase is typically the shortest (usually less than a year) and moving into Early-Cycle Phase sectors can be considered.
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